Where is All the Volatility?
Posted on August 10, 2012 at 13:25 PM EDT
Remarkably, all of the action this week has occurred within a range between 1387.50 and 1403.75, or 1.2%, which is extremely sparse volatility. That said, usually when volatility implodes like this, over an extended period, we can count on the fact that a violent move likely is approaching fast. Which way? Purely from a pattern perspective, this week's action represents a high-level congestion area atop the Aug 02, Draghi II, upleg from 1349.25 to 1403.75, and as such, should be expected to resolve itself to the upside in a thrust that projects next to 1406-1410. However, when we overlay the lagging and non-confirming momentum gauge, since momentum peaked on July 27 at 1383, then the idea of a sustained upside thrust has to be called into question. In other words, right now, while the pattern argues for another pop to the upside, momentum is warning us that such a pop might be, and should be, short lived, and will result in a Bull Trap that is potentially extremely damaging to the entrenched holders of long positions. What to do? As of this moment, the bulls remain in the driver’s seat as we look for another tell-tale up-move, and unless 1392-1390 support is violated. See today’s Emini S&P 500 (e-SPU).
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